Apple (AAPL) 2012 Q1 Earnings Trade
See this post for my previous thoughts on this trade. The options markets were pricing-in a move of roughly $33.68 (6%) which seemed justifiable. The straddle pricing in Apple (AAPL) has over-priced the move 75% of the time during the last 8 quarters so I felt comfortable selling the vol using this range.
AAPL April Weekly iron condor 510/515/610/615
I decided to go a little further out than the move that was being priced-in because I am willing to give up a few dollars for a wider range. As you can see, the wider range paid off because Apple is trading right near the expected move after hours.
Depending on the vol crush we see tomorrow, I may take off the entire trade or may simply leave the short call spreads on weakness.
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